A pre-mortem flips optimism into foresight: assume the decision has already failed, then work backwards to why. This makes that a quick, structured exercise before you commit.
What this tool does
You state the decision, list the ways it could fail with a likelihood and impact for each, and get a ranked risk list plus a plain verdict on whether to proceed.
Who it's for
Founders and leaders about to make a big, hard-to-reverse call — a launch, a hire, a big commitment.
How to use it — step by step
- State the decision. The bet you're about to make.
- List the ways it fails. Be honest and specific.
- Rate likelihood and impact. For each failure mode.
- Read the ranked risks + verdict. What to fix before you commit.
How to read your result
A single 'Likely + Fatal' risk should stop you until it's mitigated. The verdict isn't about killing the idea — it's about fixing the one or two things that would actually sink it.
Worked examples
The same tool behaves differently depending on what you put in. Here are 3 situations.
Launching a feature
Inputs: Six months of build.
What the tool shows: Surfaces 'customers don't want it' and 'we run out of cash' — ranks the fatal ones.
What to do: Validate demand and cash before committing the six months.
A senior hire
Inputs: An expensive, culture-shaping role.
What the tool shows: Ranks mis-hire and runway risks.
What to do: De-risk with references and a trial project.
Signing a big customer
Inputs: A deal that reshapes the roadmap.
What the tool shows: Surfaces concentration and delivery risk.
What to do: Guard against over-dependence on one account.
Common questions
Isn't this just being negative? No — it's foresight. Naming risks early is how you avoid them.
How long does it take? A few minutes — that's the point.
What if everything's 'Fatal'? Then the decision needs rework before you commit.